In May 2025, the Snake Island Institute (SII) surveyed 26 Ukrainian service members with direct operational experience spanning the 2014-2022 period and the current war. SII then conducted an analysis of Russian ceasefire behavior patterns from 2014-2022, combining archival research with primary source interviews from Ukrainian frontline personnel who were fighting from 2014-2022. This assessment reveals a consistent pattern of strategic deception wherein Moscow systematically exploits ceasefire agreements as operational pauses to reconstitute forces, enhance military capabilities, and prepare for expanded offensive operations.

Key Findings:

• 91% of respondents reported having directly witnessed or experienced violations of ceasefire agreements.

• 100% of respondents expressed no trust in Russia adhering to future ceasefire commitments.

• 95% believe Russia's primary goal in ceasefire negotiations is to regroup and prepare for further offensives.

• Traditional ceasefire frameworks lack enforcement mechanisms to prevent exploitation.

These frontline perspectives, combined with documented violations and intelligence assessments, form the empirical foundation of this briefing. All quotes in the briefing are direct quotes from the soldiers who participated in our survey.